Think back to early 2021. Lineups at open houses. Offers written on the hoods of cars. Buyers skipping inspections on homes they had seen for eleven minutes.
That stretch lasted about 13 months.
Undoing it has taken four and a half years.
That is the striking finding in a new analysis from Better Dwelling, built on September numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association. The price of a typical Canadian home has fallen about 22.5% since its peak in March 2022. It now sits near $651,400, its lowest level since February 2021. In other words, 54 months of slow decline have erased 13 months of frenzy.
Demand is soft across the country too. Measured against new listings, September sales were the weakest for that month since 1994.
So what does that mean for Fraser Valley home prices?
What's Happening to Fraser Valley Home Prices
Our market has followed the same arc. In some places, it has been steeper.
The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reports that the benchmark price of a single-family detached home (the price of a typical house) is now $1,300,000. That is down 8.8% from a year ago. It is also $460,000 below its March 2022 peak.
Read that again. Four hundred and sixty thousand dollars.
Townhomes, at $745,300, are down 6.2% from last year. Condos, at $461,800, are down 9.3%.
Buyers hold the upper hand. In September, about 9 of every 100 homes for sale found a buyer. Anything under 12 counts as a buyer's market, and the board says the Fraser Valley has spent most of the past two years there. Homes are taking about six weeks to sell: 45 days for a detached home, 38 for a townhome and 46 for a condo.
Next door in Metro Vancouver, the story has a twist. Greater Vancouver REALTORS® report that overall sales fell 8.4% from last September. But nearly all of that drop came from condos, where sales fell 18.6%. Detached and townhome sales actually rose slightly. Their chief economist reads this as people buying homes to live in, while investors wait on the sidelines.
The Part Most People Miss
This is where the headlines and the real decision part ways.
Most people hear "prices are down" and think one thing: bad news for sellers, good news for buyers. But most of my clients are not one or the other. They are both. They sell one home and buy the next.
For them, a falling market can quietly work in their favour.
Look at the gap between a typical Fraser Valley townhome and a typical detached home. A year ago, that gap was $631,600. Today, it is $554,700. That is $76,900 less standing between a growing family and a backyard.
Yes, the townhome sells for less than it would have last year. But the house they are stepping up to has dropped even more. The board's chair made the same point: for buyers ready to act, lower prices may open the door to a different kind of home.
The step from condo to townhome tells a different story. That gap barely moved, by about $1,600. So the opportunity is real, but it is not everywhere. That is why a regional headline is never the whole answer. Your street, your type of home and your next move are what matter.
The Waiting Game Has a Cost
It is tempting to wait for the bottom. Nobody wants to buy on Tuesday what will be cheaper on Friday.
But prices are not the only thing moving.
The Bank of Canada has held its rate at 2.25%. Yet the five-year bond yield, the number lenders watch when they set five-year fixed mortgage rates, rose from 3.34% to 3.70% in about a month. Inflation is running at 3.0%. Markets expect the Bank to hold, or even raise, rates at its October 28 decision.
So a buyer waiting for a lower price could find a higher mortgage rate waiting instead. A small drop in price can be wiped out by a small rise in borrowing costs.
And the experts have been wrong before. Better Dwelling points out that RBC has called the bottom of this market eight times in four years. No one gets a text message when the market hits bottom. You only see it in the rear-view mirror.
What to Do with All This
If you are buying: You have something buyers have not had in years: time and choice. Use them. Negotiate. Keep your conditions. But get your financing approved now, so rising rates do not make the decision for you.
If you are selling: Price for the market we have, not the one we remember. Homes priced right still sell. Homes priced for 2022 sit, and every week on the market hands the next buyer more leverage.
If you are moving up: Run the numbers on both sides of the move. The math may be kinder than the headlines suggest.
Let's Look at Your Numbers
Every market report is an average. Your home is not.
If you are wondering what this means for your next move, let's grab a coffee. No pressure and no pitch. Just a clear look at your neighbourhood, your home and your options.
Call or text me at 778.990.8703, or email allister@allistercarrington.com.
Love Where You Live.
Sources: Better Dwelling, October 16, 2026, using Canadian Real Estate Association data; Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and Greater Vancouver REALTORS®, September 2026 market reports; SnapStats Economic Dashboard, October 1, 2026.